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News: Poland will 'taker a breather' in 2008

Wed, 21 Nov 07

The outlook for Poland in 2008 is good overall, according to Property Secrets...

The credit crisis this September left investors feeling somewhat uncertain where they should put their money and a little deflated by the property market, in general. We hope that our 2008 property price forecasts help to reassure investors that property is still a very viable option and our results prove, as we have said time and time again, that Central and Eastern Europe still remains our favourite and most lucrative location.

Property Secrets’ Chief Analyst Simon Tweddle forecasts his 2008 property price predictions using a combination of fuzzy analysis and hard economic facts to get a more rounded and clearer picture.

Fuzzy analysis

In a nut-shell, ‘fuzzy analysis’ is the balance between the hard location, so the tangibles such as infrastructure or the economic factors on a macro level through to a particular zone. And the clever bit – the soft analysis – which is a little harder to explain. This could be emotive factors such as the feel of a place, good or bad associations with a location or whether the area has a pleasant or ugly name.

Tweddle elaborates: “These ‘soft’ factors are the ones that turn an average area into a desirable one which in turn will attract renters for your buy to let property. This is why we employ the ‘fuzzy analysis’ as a property investor wont find these key soft factors in any spreadsheet or annual book of economic statistics.”

So here are our predictions for Poland, including percentage growth for 2008 and whether the market is accelerating or decelerating since 2007 results:

Poland

The fundamentals of the Polish market are still strong, however with some cities taking a breather we will see less overall growth over the next 12 months than the last 12 months.

Warsaw
5-10% Decelerating

The market has cooled somewhat due to high prices, but wages are still growing, rental is picking up and for the next year we will see more steady sustainable growth.

Krakow
5% Decelerating

Many overpriced mid-quality properties exist in Krakow which is damaging the market there. Low end or high end properties are less affected.

Lodz

10-12% Decelerating

Salaries are picking up and investment is healthy. Infrastructure is improving. Prices are still low and have potential for further growth.

TriCity
20% Accelerating

Low prices and relatively high wages mean that Katowice could be one of the best bets in Poland for growth over the next 12 months.

Poznan
5-10% Decelerating

Prices are quite high after a period of strong growth though wages aren't as out of kilter with prices as some other cities. There is still some room for moderate growth.

Wroclaw
5% Decelerating

Similar to Krakow the market has over heated and prices are now a little too high. Investment is still strong making Wroclaw a good bet for strong future price growth after a much needed period of consolidation.

3rd Tier Cities Gliwice)
10-15% Accelerating

Prices in the 3rd tier cities in Poland are low, their economies are picking up and they have the most potential for growth.

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