Reallymoving House Price Forecast

Reallymoving is a provider of quotes for home moving services online. This includes quotes for conveyancing. It uses information supplied by buyers on their conveyancing quote forms to measure house prices each month through the reallymoving House Price Forecast.

Data

House price analysis is based on an average of 6,069 monthly conveyancing quotes. This is gathered for England and Wales as a whole, as well as a regional basis for the English regions, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

It is presented in graph form comparing three sets of figures. This includes reallymoving price data together with a longer term forecast for prices over the coming three months. These are then compared to Land Registry Price Data. Customers submitting house price information to reallymoving tend to get quotes 12 weeks before completion. This means that forecasted data for January to March each year is based on registrations from the previous October to December.

Reallymoving has recorded a close correlation between its figures, on house prices based on conveyancing quotes, and those relating to actual prices paid published by the Land Registry.

Method

The data is both seasonally and mix-adjusted based on the time of year, type of property, leasehold/freehold and whether the property is a new build or an existing home.

Data included is for properties priced between £40,000 and £2,000,000. This helps reallymoving account for any pricing errors on the conveyancing quote forms.

Reallymoving also takes into account potential skewing of the data towards the lower-priced end of the market, due to the profile of customers using a price comparison site. As a result forecasted values have been lifted by the average difference between reallymoving and Land Registry data during the previous quarter.

Disadvantages

• The number of observations at around 6,000 is low compared to other house price indices, such as Home.co.uk's Asking Price Index and LSL Acadata England and Wales House Price Index.
• The figures are not based on actual prices paid and rely on buyers submitting accurate data about the value of their new home. House prices may also change during the conveyancing period.

Advantages

• By gathering house price information around three months before completion, reallymoving's house price forecast offers an insight into what paid-for prices could look like in the coming months. This is in contrast to Land Registry and other data the government uses for its UK House Price Index, which is based on actual price paid and mortgage completions.
• The information is well presented in easy to read graphs, with useful comparison information and a forecast of prices over the next three months.

Verdict

Reallymoving's house price forecast offers a useful snapshot of how house prices may change over the coming three months. Its monthly release of house price figures, comparison with Land Registry figures and forecast of prices for the next three months is a useful addition to the house price indices available.